Feinberg Forecast: Scott’s First 2021 Read of the Oscars Race – Hollywood Reporter

PLEASE NOTE: This forecast, assembled by The Hollywood Reporter's awards columnist Scott Feinberg, reflects his best attempt to predict the behavior of the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences, not his personal preferences. He arrives at these standings by drawing upon consultations with voters and awards strategists, analysis of marketing and awards campaigns, results of awards ceremonies that precede the Oscars, and the history of the Oscars ceremony itself. There will be regular updates to reflect new developments.

*BEST PICTURE*

FrontrunnersNomadland (Searchlight)The Trial of the Chicago 7 (Netflix)Minari (A24)Promising Young Woman (Focus)Sound of Metal (Amazon)The Father (Sony Classics)Ma Rainey's Black Bottom (Netflix)One Night in Miami (Amazon)Soul (Pixar)Mank (Netflix)

Major Threats News of the World (Universal)Malcolm & Marie (Netflix)Da 5 Bloods (Netflix)Tenet (Warner Bros.)

PossibilitiesJudas and the Black Messiah (Warner Bros.)Never Rarely Sometimes Always (Focus)Borat Subsequent Moviefilm (Amazon)The Midnight Sky (Netflix)

Long ShotsPalm Springs (Hulu/Neon)The Invisible Man (Universal)Let Them All Talk (HBO Max)On the Rocks (A24/Apple) Ammonite (Neon)

Still to See or Embargoed (alphabetically)Another Round (Samuel Goldwyn Films)Cherry (Apple TV+)I Carry You With Me (Sony Classics)Joe Bell (Solstice)Land (Focus)Let Him Go (Focus)The Little Things (Warner Bros.)Martin Eden (Kino Lorber)Our Friend (Gravitas)Palmer (Apple TV+)Supernova (Bleecker Street)The United States vs. Billie Holiday (Paramount)Wild Mountain Thyme (Bleecker Street)

*BEST DIRECTOR*

FrontrunnersChlo Zhao (Nomadland)Aaron Sorkin (The Trial of the Chicago 7) podcastLee Isaac Chung (Minari)Emerald Fennell (Promising Young Woman)Darius Marder (Sound of Metal)

Major ThreatsDavid Fincher (Mank)Paul Greengrass (News of the World)Spike Lee (Da 5 Bloods) podcastRegina King (One Night in Miami) podcastGeorge C. Wolfe (Ma Rainey's Black Bottom)

Possibilities Florian Zeller (The Father)Christopher Nolan (Tenet)Pete Docter & Kemp Powers (Soul)Sam Levinson (Malcolm & Marie)Eliza Hittman (Never Rarely Sometimes Always)

Long ShotsShaka King (Judas and the Black Messiah)Radha Blank (The 40-Year-Old Version)George Clooney (The Midnight Sky) podcastSteven Soderbergh (Let Them All Talk)

Still to See or Embargoed (alphabetically)Gabriela Cowperthwaite (Our Friend)Lee Daniels (The United States vs. Billie Holiday)Heidi Ewing (I Carry You With Me)Reinaldo Marcus Green (Joe Bell)John Lee Hancock (The Little Things)Pietro Marcello (Martin Eden)Anthony Russo & Joe Russo (Cherry)John Patrick Shanley (Wild Mountain Thyme)Fisher Stevens (Palmer)Thomas Vinterberg (Another Round)Robin Wright (Land)

*BEST ACTOR*

FrontrunnersChadwick Boseman (Ma Rainey's Black Bottom) podcastRiz Ahmed (Sound of Metal) podcastDelroy Lindo (Da 5 Bloods) podcastAnthony Hopkins (The Father)Steven Yeun (Minari) podcast

Major ThreatsBen Affleck (The Way Back)John David Washington (Malcolm & Marie)Gary Oldman (Mank)Tom Hanks (News of the World) podcast [one and two]

Possibilities Sacha Baron Cohen (Borat Subsequent Moviefilm) podcastKingsley Ben-Adir (One Night in Miami)LaKeith Stanfield (Judas and the Black Messiah)George Clooney (The Midnight Sky) podcast

Long ShotsEli Goree (One Night in Miami)Andy Samberg (Palm Springs)Tahar Rahim (The Mauritanian)Peter Gerety (Working Man)

Still to See or Embargoed (alphabetically)Casey Affleck (Our Friend) podcastKevin Costner (Let Him Go)Clayne Crawford (The Killing of Two Lovers)Jamie Dornan (Wild Mountain Thyme)Armando Espitia (I Carry You With Me)Colin Firth (Supernova)Tom Holland (Cherry)Jude Law (The Nest)John Magaro (First Cow)Luca Marinelli (Martin Eden)Mads Mikkelsen (Another Round)Ntare Guma Mbaho Mwine (Farewell Amor)Jim Parsons (The Boys in the Band)Trevante Rhodes (The United States vs. Billie Holiday)Justin Timberlake (Palmer)Mark Wahlberg (Joe Bell)Denzel Washington (The Little Things) podcast

*BEST ACTRESS*

FrontrunnersFrances McDormand (Nomadland)Carey Mulligan (Promising Young Woman) podcastZendaya (Malcolm & Marie)Viola Davis (Ma Rainey's Black Bottom)Sophia Loren (The Life Ahead) podcast

Major ThreatsVanessa Kirby (Pieces of a Woman)Sidney Flanigan (Never Rarely Sometimes Always)Meryl Streep (The Prom) podcastMeryl Streep (Let Them All Talk) podcastKate Winslet (Ammonite) podcast [one and two]

PossibilitiesMichelle Pfeiffer (French Exit) podcastRachel Brosnahan (I'm Your Woman) podcastYeri Han (Minari)Elisabeth Moss (The Invisible Man) podcastJulia Garner (The Assistant) podcast

Long ShotsRashida Jones (On the Rocks) podcastCristin Milioti (Palm Springs)Charlize Theron (The Old Guard)Rosamund Pike (Radioactive) podcastNaomi Watts (Penguin Bloom)

Still to See or Embargoed (alphabetically)Nicole Beharie (Miss Juneteenth)Haley Bennett (Swallow)Emily Blunt (Wild Mountain Thyme)Carrie Coon (The Nest)Andra Day (The United States vs. Billie Holiday)Clare Dunne (Herself)Dakota Johnson (Our Friend)Diane Lane (Let Him Go)Sienna Miller (Wander Darkly)Rosamund Pike (I Care a Lot)Eliza Scanlen (Babyteeth)Katherine Waterston (The World to Come)Evan Rachel Wood (Kajillionaire)Robin Wright (Land)

*BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR*

FrontrunnersSacha Baron Cohen (The Trial of the Chicago 7) podcastDavid Strathairn (Nomadland)Leslie Odom Jr. (One Night in Miami) podcastPaul Raci (Sound of Metal)Chadwick Boseman (Da 5 Bloods) podcast

Major ThreatsDaniel Kaluuya (Judas and the Black Messiah)Aldis Hodge (One Night in Miami)Bo Burnham (Promising Young Woman) podcastBill Murray (On the Rocks)

PossibilitiesWill Patton (Minari)Mark Rylance (The Trial of the Chicago 7)Yahya Abdul-Mateen II (The Trial of the Chicago 7)Frank Langella (The Trial of the Chicago 7)

Long Shots Eddie Redmayne (The Trial of the Chicago 7) podcastGlynn Turman (Ma Rainey's Black Bottom)Billy Crystal (Standing Up, Falling Down) podcast

Still to See or Embargoed (alphabetically)Ryder Allen (Palmer)Demian Bichir (Land)Jared Leto (The Little Things)Rami Malek (The Little Things) podcastReid Miller (Joe Bell)Jason Segel (Our Friend) podcastGary Sinise (Joe Bell)Stanley Tucci (Supernova)Christopher Walken (Wild Mountain Thyme)

*BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS*

FrontrunnersOlivia Colman (The Father) podcastAmanda Seyfried (Mank) podcastYuh-jung Youn (Minari)Maria Bakalova (Borat Subsequent Moviefilm)Olivia Cooke (Sound of Metal)

Major Threats Jodie Foster (The Mauritanian)Candice Bergen (Let Them All Talk)Ellen Burstyn (Pieces of a Woman)

PossibilitiesHelena Zengel (News of the World)Saoirse Ronan (Ammonite) podcastGlenn Close (Hillbilly Elegy) podcast

Long ShotsTalia Ryder (Never Rarely Sometimes Always)Dominique Fishback (Judas and the Black Messiah)Marsha Stephanie Blake (I'm Your Woman)

Still to See or Embargoed (alphabetically)Ciara Bravo (Cherry)Connie Britton (Joe Bell)Vanessa Kirby (The World to Come)Natasha Lyonne (The United States vs. Billie Holiday)Da'Vine Joy Randolph (The United States vs. Billie Holiday)Juno Temple (Palmer)Vanessa Williams (Bad Hair)

*BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY*

FrontrunnersNomadland (Chlo Zhao)The Father (Christopher Hampton & Florian Zeller)Ma Rainey's Black Bottom (Ruben Santiago-Hudson)One Night in Miami (Kemp Powers)News of the World (Luke Davies & Paul Greengrass)

Major ThreatsThe Life Ahead (Edoardo Ponti)I'm Thinking of Ending Things (Charlie Kaufman) podcastThe Midnight Sky (Mark L. Smith)

PossibilitiesBorat Subsequent Moviefilm (Peter Baynham, Sacha Baron Cohen, Jena Friedman, Anthony Hines, Lee Kern, Dan Mazer, Erica Rivinoja & Dan Swimer) podcast [Cohen]The Personal History of David Copperfield (Armando Iannucci)

Long ShotsShirley (Sarah Gibbons)Emma (Eleanor Catton)

Still to See or Embargoed (alphabetically)Cherry (Jessica Goldberg & Angela Russo-Otstot)First Cow (Jonathan Raymond & Kelly Reichardt)Let Him Go (Thomas Bezucha)Martin Eden (Maurizio Braucci)Our Friend (Brad Ingelsby)The United States vs. Billie Holiday (Suzan-Lori Parks)Wild Mountain Thyme (John Patrick Shanley)

*BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY*

FrontrunnersThe Trial of the Chicago 7 (Aaron Sorkin) podcastPromising Young Woman (Emerald Fennell)Minari (Lee Isaac Chung)Sound of Metal (Derek Cianfrance, Abraham Marder & Darius Marder)Malcolm & Marie (Sam Levinson)

Major Threats Soul (Pete Docter, Mike Jones & Kemp Powers)The Forty-Year-Old Version (Radha Blank)Mank (Jack Fincher)Never Rarely Sometimes Always (Eliza Hittman)Da 5 Bloods (Danny Bilson, Paul De Meo, Kevin Willmott & Spike Lee) podcast [Lee]

PossibilitiesJudas and the Black Messiah (Will Berson, Shaka King, Keith Lucas & Kenny Lucas)Palm Springs (Andy Siara)On the Rocks (Sofia Coppola) I'm Your Woman (Julia Hart & Jordan Horowitz)

Long ShotsLet Them All Talk (Deborah Eisenberg)The King of Staten Island (Judd Apatow) podcastAmmonite (Francis Lee)Tenet (Christopher Nolan)

Still to See or Embargoed (alphabetically)Bad Hair (Justin Simien)The Climb (Michael Angelo Covino & Kyle Marvin)Herself (Malcolm Campbell & Clare Dunne)Joe Bell (Larry McMurtry & Diana Ossana)Kajillionaire (Miranda July)Land (Jesse Chatham & Erin Dignam)The Little Things (John Lee Hancock)Miss Juneteenth (Channing Godfrey Peoples)Palmer (Cheryl Guerriero)

*BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE*

FrontrunnersTime (Amazon)Crip Camp (Netflix)Collective (Magnolia/Participant)Welcome to Chechnya (HBO)The Truffle Hunters (Sony Classics)

Rest of ShortlistDick Johnson Is Dead (Netflix)The Dissident (Briarcliff) podcast [Bryan Fogel]MLK/FBI (IFC)City Hall (Zipporah) podcast [Frederick Wiseman]Boys State (Apple)On the Record (HBO Max)The Social Dilemma (Netflix)My Octopus Teacher (Netflix) Acasa, My Home (Kino Lorber/Zeitgeist)The Way I See It (Focus)

PossibilitiesJohn Lewis: Good Trouble (Magnolia/Participant)Notturno (Super LTD)Totally Under Control (Neon) podcast [Alex Gibney]All In: The Fight for Democracy (Amazon)The Human Factor (Sony Classics)The Mole Agent (Gravitas)I Am Not Alone (Netflix)I Am Greta (Hulu)Kingdom of Silence (Showtime)The Fight (Magnolia/Topic)Athlete A (Netflix)Rebuilding Paradise (Nat Geo) podcast [Ron Howard]

Long ShotsSearching for Mr. Rugoff (still seeking U.S. distribution)Miss Americana (Netflix)Be Water (ESPN)Kiss the Ground (self-distributed)Francesco (still seeking U.S. distribution)Dear Mr. Brody (still seeking U.S. distribution)Oliver Sacks: His Own Life (Zeitgeist)Mucho Mucho Amor: The Legend of Walter Mercado (Netflix) podcast [Cristina Costantini]A Secret Love (Netflix)Circus of Books (Netflix)Red Penguins (Universal) podcast [Gabe Polsky]American Selfie (MTV)Once Were Brothers: Robbie Robertson and the Band (Magnolia)

Still to See or Embargoed (alphabetically)40 Years a Prisoner (HBO)76 Days (MTV)Apocalypse '45 (Discovery)Assassins (Greenwich)Beautiful Something Left Behind (MTV)Belly of the Beast (PBS)Belushi (Showtime)Coded Bias (PBS Independent Lens)Crock of Gold (Magnolia)Desert One (Greenwich)Disclosure (Netflix)The Earth Is Blue as an Orange (still seeking U.S. distribution)Father Soldier Son (Netflix)Feels Good Man (Wavelength Productions/PBS Independent Lens)Finding Yingying (MTV)Fireball: Visitor from Darker Worlds (Apple TV+)The Forbidden Reel (still seeking U.S. distribution)Giving Voice (Netflix)The Go-Go's (Showtime)Gunda (Neon)I Walk on Water (Grasshopper)Mayor (Film Movement)Me and the Cult Leader (still seeking U.S. distribution)The Metamorphosis of Birds (still seeking U.S. distribution)A Most Beautiful Thing (still seeking U.S. distribution)Mr. SOUL! (self-distributed)My Psychedelic Love Story (Showtime)Nasrin (Virgil Films & Entertainment)Olympia (still seeking U.S. distribution)Once Upon a Time in Venezuela (still seeking U.S. distribution)The Painter and the Thief (Neon)The Reason I Jump (Kino Lorber)Reunited (still seeking U.S. distribution)Rewind (Grizzly Creek)Rising Phoenix (Netflix)Softie (Icarus)Stars and Strife (self-distributed)The State of Texas vs. Melissa (Filmrise)Stray (Magnolia)A Thousand Cuts (PBS)'Til Kingdom Come (still seeking U.S. distribution)To See You Again (still seeking U.S. distribution)Transhood (HBO)Unapologetic (still seeking U.S. distribution)The Viewing Booth (Roco)Vivos (still seeking U.S. distribution)Wild Daze (Cinedigm)Wintopia (still seeking U.S. distribution)With Drawn Arms (Starz)Zappa (Magnolia)

*BEST INTERNATIONAL FEATURE*

Official Submissions (alphabetical)14 Days, 12 Nights (Canada)Agnes Joy (Iceland)And Tomorrow the Entire World (Germany)Another Round (Denmark)Apples (Greece)Arracht (Ireland)Asia (Israel)Atlantis (Ukraine)The Auschwitz Report (Slovakia)Beginning (Georgia)Blizzard of Souls (Latvia)Broken Keys (Lebanon)Bulado (Netherlands)Causa Justa (Panama)Charlatan (Czech Republic)Charter (Sweden)Collective (Romania)The Crying Steppe (Kazakhstan)Dara of Jasenovac (Serbia)Dear Comrades! (Russia)Emptiness (Ecuador)The Endless Trench (Spain)Exile (Kosovo)Extracurricular (Croatia)The Father (Bulgaria)Gaza Mon Amour (Palestine)Heliopolis (Algeria)Hope (Norway)I'm No Longer Here (Mexico)Impetigore (Indonesia)Jallikattu (India)La Llorona (Guatemala)Land of Ashes (Costa Rica)The Last Ones (Estonia)Leap (China)The Letter (Kenya)Lunana a Yak in the Classroom (Bhutan)The Man Standing Next (South Korea)Mindanao (Philippines)Miracle in Cell No. 7 (Turkey)The Mole Agent (Chile)My Little Sister (Switzerland)Never Gonna Snow Again (Poland)Night of the Kings (Ivory Coast)Notturno (Italy)Nova Lituania (Lithuania)Once Upon a Time in Venezuela (Venezuela)Open Door (Albania)Preparations to Be Together for an Unknown Period of Time (Hungary)Quo Vadis, Aida? (Bosnia and Herzegovina)River Tales (Luxembourg)Roh (Malaysia)The Sleepwalkers (Argentina)Song Without a Name (Peru)Stories From the Chestnut Woods (Slovenia)A Sun (Taiwan)Sun Children (Iran)This Is Not a Burial (Lesotho)Tove (Finland)True Mothers (Japan)Two of Us (France)Vitalina Varela (Portugal)What We Wanted (Austria)Willow (North Macedonia)Working Girls (Belgium)

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Feinberg Forecast: Scott's First 2021 Read of the Oscars Race - Hollywood Reporter

Reviewed and Recommended by Erik Baquero