Feinberg Forecast: The Landscape Heading In to Oscar Shortlist Voting – Hollywood Reporter

PLEASE NOTE: This forecast, assembled by The Hollywood Reporter's awards columnist Scott Feinberg, reflects his best attempt to predict the behavior of the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences, not his personal preferences. He arrives at these standings by drawing upon consultations with voters and awards strategists, analysis of marketing and awards campaigns, results of awards ceremonies that precede the Oscars, and the history of the Oscars ceremony itself. There will be regular updates to reflect new developments.

*BEST PICTURE*

FrontrunnersNomadland (Searchlight)The Trial of the Chicago 7 (Netflix)Minari (A24)Da 5 Bloods (Netflix)Sound of Metal (Amazon)One Night in Miami (Amazon)Ma Rainey's Black Bottom (Netflix)Promising Young Woman (Focus)Soul (Pixar)Mank (Netflix)

Major Threats Judas and the Black Messiah (Warner Bros.)News of the World (Universal)The Father (Sony Classics)Tenet (Warner Bros.)Borat Subsequent Moviefilm (Amazon)

PossibilitiesNever Rarely Sometimes Always (Focus)First Cow (A24)The Midnight Sky (Netflix)Palm Springs (Hulu/Neon)Malcolm & Marie (Netflix)

Long ShotsThe United States vs. Billie Holiday (Paramount)The White Tiger (Netflix)The Way Back (Warner Bros.)The Invisible Man (Universal)

*BEST DIRECTOR*

FrontrunnersChlo Zhao (Nomadland)Aaron Sorkin (The Trial of the Chicago 7) podcastLee Isaac Chung (Minari)Spike Lee (Da 5 Bloods) podcastDarius Marder (Sound of Metal)

Major ThreatsDavid Fincher (Mank)Regina King (One Night in Miami) podcastGeorge C. Wolfe (Ma Rainey's Black Bottom)Emerald Fennell (Promising Young Woman)

PossibilitiesPaul Greengrass (News of the World) podcastChristopher Nolan (Tenet)Eliza Hittman (Never Rarely Sometimes Always)Kelly Reichardt (First Cow)

Long ShotsFlorian Zeller (The Father)Lee Daniels (The United States vs. Billie Holiday)Pete Docter & Kemp Powers (Soul)Ramin Bahrani (The White Tiger)

*BEST ACTOR*

FrontrunnersChadwick Boseman (Ma Rainey's Black Bottom) podcastRiz Ahmed (Sound of Metal) podcastDelroy Lindo (Da 5 Bloods) podcastAnthony Hopkins (The Father)Ben Affleck (The Way Back) podcast

Major ThreatsGary Oldman (Mank)Steven Yeun (Minari) podcastTom Hanks (News of the World) podcast [one and two]Sacha Baron Cohen (Borat Subsequent Moviefilm) podcast

PossibilitiesJohn David Washington (Malcolm & Marie)Kingsley Ben-Adir (One Night in Miami)Eli Goree (One Night in Miami)

Long ShotsLaKeith Stanfield (Judas and the Black Messiah)George Clooney (The Midnight Sky) podcastTahar Rahim (The Mauritanian)Adarsh Gourav (The White Tiger)

*BEST ACTRESS*

FrontrunnersFrances McDormand (Nomadland)Carey Mulligan (Promising Young Woman) podcastViola Davis (Ma Rainey's Black Bottom)Sophia Loren (The Life Ahead) podcastZendaya (Malcolm & Marie)

Major ThreatsAndra Day (The United States vs. Billie Holiday)Vanessa Kirby (Pieces of a Woman)Meryl Streep (The Prom) podcastMeryl Streep (Let Them All Talk) podcast

PossibilitiesNicole Beharie (Miss Juneteenth)Sidney Flanigan (Never Rarely Sometimes Always)Kate Winslet (Ammonite) podcast [one and two]Michelle Pfeiffer (French Exit) podcast

Long ShotsYeri Han (Minari)Radha Blank (The 40-Year-Old Version)Rachel Brosnahan (I'm Your Woman) podcastJulia Garner (The Assistant) podcastElisabeth Moss (The Invisible Man) podcast

*BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR*

FrontrunnersChadwick Boseman (Da 5 Bloods) podcastSacha Baron Cohen (The Trial of the Chicago 7) podcastLeslie Odom Jr. (One Night in Miami) podcastPaul Raci (Sound of Metal)Daniel Kaluuya (Judas and the Black Messiah)

Major ThreatsDavid Strathairn (Nomadland)Aldis Hodge (One Night in Miami)Mark Rylance (The Trial of the Chicago 7)Glynn Turman (Ma Rainey's Black Bottom)

PossibilitiesBill Murray (On the Rocks)Bo Burnham (Promising Young Woman) podcastYahya Abdul-Mateen II (The Trial of the Chicago 7)

Long ShotsColman Domingo (Ma Rainey's Black Bottom)Will Patton (Minari)Frank Langella (The Trial of the Chicago 7)Rajkummar Rao (The White Tiger)

*BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS*

FrontrunnersMaria Bakalova (Borat Subsequent Moviefilm)Youn Yuh-jung (Minari)Amanda Seyfried (Mank) podcastOlivia Cooke (Sound of Metal)Ellen Burstyn (Pieces of a Woman)

Major ThreatsOlivia Colman (The Father) podcastJodie Foster (The Mauritanian)Candice Bergen (Let Them All Talk)Helena Zengel (News of the World)

PossibilitiesPriyanka Chopra-Jonas (The White Tiger)Dominique Fishback (Judas and the Black Messiah)Saoirse Ronan (Ammonite) podcast

Long ShotsGlenn Close (Hillbilly Elegy) podcastTalia Ryder (Never Rarely Sometimes Always)Alexis Chikaeze (Miss Juneteenth)

*BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY*

FrontrunnersNomadland (Chlo Zhao)One Night in Miami (Kemp Powers)Ma Rainey's Black Bottom (Ruben Santiago-Hudson)The Father (Christopher Hampton & Florian Zeller)News of the World (Luke Davies & Paul Greengrass) podcast [Greengrass]

Major ThreatsThe Life Ahead (Edoardo Ponti)The Midnight Sky (Mark L. Smith)Borat Subsequent Moviefilm (Peter Baynham, Sacha Baron Cohen, Jena Friedman, Anthony Hines, Lee Kern, Dan Mazer, Erica Rivinoja & Dan Swimer) podcast [Cohen]

PossibilitiesFirst Cow (Jonathan Raymond & Kelly Reichardt)I'm Thinking of Ending Things (Charlie Kaufman) podcastThe White Tiger (Ramin Bahrani)

Long ShotsThe United States vs. Billie Holiday (Suzan-Lori Parks)Shirley (Sarah Gibbons)The Personal History of David Copperfield (Armando Iannucci) Emma. (Eleanor Catton)

*BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY*

FrontrunnersThe Trial of the Chicago 7 (Aaron Sorkin) podcastMinari (Lee Isaac Chung)Sound of Metal (Derek Cianfrance, Abraham Marder & Darius Marder)Promising Young Woman (Emerald Fennell)Soul (Pete Docter, Mike Jones & Kemp Powers)

Major ThreatsMank (Jack Fincher)Da 5 Bloods (Danny Bilson, Paul De Meo, Kevin Willmott & Spike Lee) podcast [Lee]Malcolm & Marie (Sam Levinson)The Forty-Year-Old Version (Radha Blank)

PossibilitiesNever Rarely Sometimes Always (Eliza Hittman)Judas and the Black Messiah (Will Berson, Shaka King, Keith Lucas & Kenny Lucas)Palm Springs (Andy Siara) On the Rocks (Sofia Coppola)

Long ShotsMiss Juneteenth (Channing Godfrey Peoples)I'm Your Woman (Julia Hart & Jordan Horowitz)Ammonite (Francis Lee)Tenet (Christopher Nolan)

*BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE*

FrontrunnersCrip Camp (Netflix)Time (Amazon)Collective (Magnolia/Participant)Welcome to Chechnya (HBO)The Truffle Hunters (Sony Classics)

Rest of ShortlistDick Johnson Is Dead (Netflix)The Dissident (Briarcliff) podcast [Bryan Fogel]MLK/FBI (IFC)City Hall (Zipporah) podcast [Frederick Wiseman]Boys State (Apple)The Mole Agent (Gravitas)On the Record (HBO Max)The Social Dilemma (Netflix)My Octopus Teacher (Netflix)Notturno (Super LTD)

PossibilitiesThe Way I See It (Focus)Acasa, My Home (Kino Lorber/Zeitgeist)John Lewis: Good Trouble (Magnolia/Participant)Totally Under Control (Neon) podcast [Alex Gibney]All In: The Fight for Democracy (Amazon)The Human Factor (Sony Classics)I Am Greta (Hulu)Kingdom of Silence (Showtime)The Fight (Magnolia/Topic)Athlete A (Netflix)Rebuilding Paradise (Nat Geo) podcast [Ron Howard]

Long ShotsBe Water (ESPN) Giving Voice (Netflix)I Am Not Alone (self-distributed)Searching for Mr. Rugoff (still seeking U.S. distribution)Miss Americana (Netflix)Kiss the Ground (self-distributed)Dear Mr. Brody (still seeking U.S. distribution)Oliver Sacks: His Own Life (Zeitgeist)Mucho Mucho Amor: The Legend of Walter Mercado (Netflix) podcast [Cristina Costantini]A Secret Love (Netflix)Circus of Books (Netflix)

Still to See40 Years a Prisoner (HBO)76 Days (MTV)Apocalypse '45 (Discovery)Assassins (Greenwich)Babenco: Tell Me When I Die (still seeking U.S. distribution)Beautiful Something Left Behind (MTV)Belly of the Beast (PBS)Belushi (Showtime)Coded Bias (PBS Independent Lens)Crock of Gold (Magnolia)The Crying Steppe (Kazakhstan)Desert One (Greenwich)Disclosure (Netflix)The Earth Is Blue as an Orange (still seeking U.S. distribution)Father Soldier Son (Netflix)Feels Good Man (Wavelength Productions/PBS Independent Lens)Finding Yingying (MTV)Fireball: Visitor from Darker Worlds (Apple TV+)The Forbidden Reel (still seeking U.S. distribution)The Go-Go's (Showtime)Gunda (Neon)I Walk on Water (Grasshopper)Mayor (Film Movement)Me and the Cult Leader (still seeking U.S. distribution)The Metamorphosis of Birds (still seeking U.S. distribution)A Most Beautiful Thing (still seeking U.S. distribution)Mr. SOUL! (self-distributed)My People (still seeking U.S. distribution)My Psychedelic Love Story (Showtime)Napoli Eden (still seeking U.S. distribution)Nasrin (Virgil Films & Entertainment)Olympia (still seeking U.S. distribution)Once Upon a Time in Venezuela (Topic)The Painter and the Thief (Neon)The Reason I Jump (Kino Lorber)Reunited (still seeking U.S. distribution)Rewind (Grizzly Creek)Rising Phoenix (Netflix)Softie (Icarus)Stars and Strife (Virgil Films & Entertainment)The State of Texas vs. Melissa (Filmrise)Stray (Magnolia)A Thousand Cuts (PBS)'Til Kingdom Come (Abramorama)To See You Again (still seeking U.S. distribution)Transhood (HBO)Unapologetic (still seeking U.S. distribution)The Viewing Booth (Roco)Vivos (still seeking U.S. distribution)Wild Daze (Cinedigm)Wintopia (still seeking U.S. distribution)With Drawn Arms (Starz)Zappa (Magnolia)

*BEST INTERNATIONAL FEATURE*

FrontrunnersAnother Round (Denmark)Collective (Romania)I'm No Longer Here (Mexico)Two of Us (France)Dear Comrades! (Russia)

Rest of ShortlistNight of the Kings (Ivory Coast)My Little Sister (Switzerland)Apples (Greece)Quo Vadis, Aida? (Bosnia and Herzegovina)Charlatan (Czech Republic)La Llorona (Guatemala)The Mole Agent (Chile)Notturno (Italy)A Sun (Taiwan)Hope (Norway)

Other Official Submissions (alphabetical)14 Days, 12 Nights (Canada)Agnes Joy (Iceland)And Tomorrow the Entire World (Germany)Arracht (Ireland)Asia (Israel)Atlantis (Ukraine)The Auschwitz Report (Slovakia)Babenco: Tell Me When I Die (Brazil)Beginning (Georgia)Better Days (Hong Kong)Blizzard of Souls (Latvia)Broken Keys (Lebanon)Bulado (Netherlands)Causa Justa (Panama)Charter (Sweden)The Crying Steppe (Kazakhstan)Dara of Jasenovac (Serbia)Emptiness (Ecuador)The Endless Trench (Spain)Exile (Kosovo)Extracurricular (Croatia)The Father (Bulgaria)Gaza Mon Amour (Palestine)Heliopolis (Algeria)Impetigore (Indonesia)Jallikattu (India)Land of Ashes (Costa Rica)The Last Ones (Estonia)Leap (China)The Letter (Kenya)Lunana a Yak in the Classroom (Bhutan)The Man Standing Next (South Korea)The Man Who Sold His Skin (Tunisia)Mindanao (Philippines)Miracle in Cell No. 7 (Turkey)Nafi's Father (Senegal)Never Gonna Snow Again (Poland)Nova Lituania (Lithuania)Once Upon a Time in Venezuela (Venezuela)Open Door (Albania)Preparations to Be Together for an Unknown Period of Time (Hungary)River Tales (Luxembourg)Roh (Malaysia)The Sleepwalkers (Argentina)Song Without a Name (Peru)Songs of Solomon (Armenia)Stories From the Chestnut Woods (Slovenia)Sun Children (Iran)This Is Not a Burial (Lesotho)Tove (Finland)True Mothers (Japan)Vitalina Varela (Portugal)What We Wanted (Austria)Willow (North Macedonia)Working Girls (Belgium)You Will Die at 20 (Sudan)

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Feinberg Forecast: The Landscape Heading In to Oscar Shortlist Voting - Hollywood Reporter

Reviewed and Recommended by Erik Baquero